Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Graph Relation Learning for Urban Metro Flow Prediction

Abstract

Urban metro flow prediction is of great value for metro operation scheduling, passenger flow management and personal travel planning. However, the problem is challenging. First, different metro stations, e.g. transfer stations and non-transfer stations have unique traffic patterns. Second, it is difficult to model complex spatio-temporal dynamic relation of metro stations. To address these challenges, we develop a spatio-temporal dynamic graph relational learning model (STDGRL) to predict urban metro station flow. First, we propose a spatio-temporal node embedding representation module to capture the traffic patterns of different stations. Second, we employ a dynamic graph relationship learning module to learn dynamic spatial relationships between metro stations without a predefined graph adjacency matrix. Finally, we provide a transformer-based long-term relationship prediction module for long-term metro flow prediction. Extensive experiments are conducted based on metro data in four cities, China, with experimental results demonstrating the advantages of our method compared over 14 baselines for urban metro flow prediction.